The gap between Colombia’s presidential candidates Ivan Duque, the right-wing protege of former President Alvaro Uribe, and left-wing progressive Gustavo Petro has narrowed to just 2.9 percentage points, according to the latest poll by the Latin American Geopolitical Strategic Center (Celag).
Colombia’s Presidential Elections: Special Report
With just hours to go before polls open for the second round of Colombia’s presidential elections on June 17, the latest survey releasted on Saturday polled 1,350 registered voters between June 11 and 14.
Twenty of the country’s 32 departments were selected for the sample, which represents 92 percent of the electoral census. The margin of error ranges between +/- 1.7 percent and +/- 2.7 percent and the confidence interval is 95 percent.
Duque registered 45.3 percent of voter intention, while Petro registered 42.4 percent.
The estimated participation is 55.7 percent, grouping together those who state that they will ‘surely’ go to vote (43.3 percent) and those who will ‘probably’ vote (12.4 percent).
The survey showed that 8.2 percent of respondents intend to cast blank votes, while 4.1 percent still remain undecided.
The highest proportion of blank votes is recorded among those who in the first round voted for Humberto de la Calle: 5 out of 10 say they will cast blank votes on June 17.
Among supporters of Sergio Fajardo, who made public his intention to cast a blank vote in the second round, only 20 percent say they will do the same. Fortynine percent will vote for Petro, 25 percent for Duque and six percent are still undecided.
At the regional level, the voting intention gap in Antioquia/Eje Cafetero is significantly reduced compared to the previous measurement, going from 34 to 22 percentage points.
Duque descends four points, obtaining 55 percent, while Petro has grown eight points to reach 33 percent of voter intention.
In Bogota and the Central region, there is a technical tie between both candidates, while in the Caribbean and South Western Petro would win by around ten points, and Duque would win the North East by a similar margin.
The climate of voter skepticism, however, continues: three days before the elections, only 37 percent of Colombians believed they will be transparent and reliable.